Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 2.258272 2.373165 2.495792 2.637345 2.797460 2.974478 3.187190
2025-03-23 2.111678 2.271862 2.452218 2.673698 2.943446 3.268810 3.704072
2025-03-30 1.974176 2.152039 2.358530 2.621744 2.957855 3.388306 4.012797
2025-04-06 1.865510 2.051956 2.273068 2.562560 2.945518 3.459625 4.258423
2025-04-13 1.786345 1.979466 2.212583 2.524835 2.950943 3.548291 4.540994
2025-04-20 1.750289 1.955812 2.208971 2.557261 3.050785 3.781723 5.113551
2025-04-27 1.734230 1.954847 2.232470 2.625657 3.206947 4.126153 6.017042
2025-05-04 1.694899 1.921458 2.210619 2.628278 3.264391 4.320217 6.719410
2025-05-11 1.659491 1.890917 2.190066 2.629991 3.319013 4.518412 7.553963
2025-05-18 1.607333 1.836086 2.133648 2.575211 3.276775 4.529205 7.901257
2025-05-25 1.574280 1.804950 2.107799 2.563288 3.302831 4.676002 8.779339
2025-06-01 1.542822 1.774580 2.081350 2.548290 3.321490 4.811234 9.772726
2025-06-08 1.504935 1.735483 2.042667 2.514828 3.309540 4.890004 10.723010
2025-06-15 1.490743 1.727697 2.047469 2.548500 3.419929 5.272276 14.105234
2025-06-22 1.452984 1.686515 2.002913 2.501638 3.378184 5.283101 15.338903
2025-06-29 1.415421 1.644520 1.955697 2.448087 3.319386 5.240714 16.151861
2025-07-06 1.385687 1.612434 1.921636 2.413880 3.294344 5.282161 18.145642
2025-07-13 1.376218 1.607832 1.926967 2.443285 3.394104 5.688253 30.248758
2025-07-20 1.376180 1.616128 1.951253 2.505175 3.566777 6.392695 NaN
2025-07-27 1.360060 1.601330 1.940603 2.507543 3.617099 6.738980 NaN
2025-08-03 1.344564 1.586927 1.929930 2.509091 3.665831 7.110106 NaN
2025-08-10 1.316737 1.554385 1.890886 2.459546 3.597185 7.000653 NaN
2025-08-17 1.299887 1.537081 1.874443 2.448747 3.614524 7.254315 NaN